Jun

10

CodBall 2007 Pre-season Preview

Posted by Greg | Filed Under News | 

capecod_map.jpgAs a “fan” of CodBall in Alaska recently enthused, this website ain’t exactly scientific. But that doesn’t stop us from trying our best to bring analysis, commentary and conversation to one of America’s great baseball institutions.

It is within that spirit, that I offer up my thoughts and analysis on the 2007 season, which gets underway on Friday.

It is very difficult to compile statistics for all college players in America, assign those players and data to their proper Cape Cod Baseball League team and then crunch the numbers in any kind of meaningful way. I’m sure there are people out there with the time and inclination to do so, but I am sadly not one of them.

Therefore, my analysis is based on 4 factors: 1) my own scounting reports of nearly a dozen college teams with Cape players; 2) my own compilation of CCBL rosters into a rudimentary database; 3) a review of the CCBL’s own preseason reviews, and; 4) some thinking and some guessing based on experience.

What I cannot know from this analysis is which players are hot and which are not. Will a particular team of star college kids from different programs gell into a high performing summer team? What will be the impact of good coaching and managing? How will a wood bat change things? What about the different ballparks?

Nevertheless, here goes.

If you were to look simply at which teams have the highest concentration of players from Baseball America’s top-10 list as well as highly-seeded College World Series teams, you would have to pick Wareham with 12 players in its roster from those categories, Bourne (9 players), Hyannis (9 players), and Chatham (7 players). These teams have recruited the most players from the most top programs. The other programs have 5 or less.

Bourne – Bourne struggled last season but returns with 9 players from top programs like Rice, Arizona State, Wichita State, Clemson and Mississippi. Nine of its players hit above .300. On the downside, they are still looking for a closer. I would put them in the playoffs in the Western Division.

Brewster — Brewster has 3 players from the College World Series tournament or Top 10 teams, including UC Irvine, Texas and San Diego. Austin Yount, a relative of Hall of Famer Robin Yount will be fun to watch this season.

Chatham – I would have to pick Chatham to make the playoffs in the Eastern Division. With 7 players from places like North Carolina, South Carolina, Clemson and Virginia, they are loaded with talent. Watch out for Allan Dykstra, who has hit .340 this college season. And watch out of the team’s six-man pitching rotation.

Cotuit – Two words. Justin Smoak. He may be back, but probably not since he is a Team USA invitee. Either way, I’m a believer in the Cotuit program, which is lead by the great coaching of Mike Roberts. Cotuit brings 3 South Carolina players and one from Arizona State.

Falmouth — I’m a little biased here, since Falmouth is my home team. But I am not picking them to make the playoffs. I do so with some reluctance since they bring a potentially strong line-up into 2007. Falmouth has 5 players from top programs, including Arizona State, Vanderbilt, Texas A&M and Virginia. Brett Wallace of AZ State (Team USA invitee and no longer on the roster) would have been someone to watch. Pitcher Shooter Hunt is back and has good stuff.

Harwich — I’m a little underwhelmed here, but I could be totally wrong. Harwich brings two Vandy players as well as players from Texas A&M and Clemson. Cole Figueroa of Florida (.321) is someone to watch this season.

Hyannis — Hyannis will have to beat Wareham and Bourne to get into the playoffs, but they have a lot of potential. Their roster is loaded with guys from UC Irvine, Vandy, South Carolina, Clemson, Texas and San Diego. I think James Darnell at South Carolina may have a breakout season.

Orleans — Orleans comes with Arizona State, UC Irvine, Florida State and Vanderbilt talent. Josh Satow (LHP) from AZ State will help out a lot.

Wareham — Once again, Wareham is back with what may be the toughest lineup. They have recruited top talent from Rice, North Carolina, AZ State, UC Irvine, Vandy, Texas and Arkansas. Wareham, which barely lost in the playoffs last season, has 10 returning players. Look for them in the playoffs. And with their coaching, I pick them to make the championship this year.

Y-D – The Red Sox are short on players from the top rated programs this year, but they do have all-star Buster Posey of Florida State returning. After winning the championship last season, they have a hill to climb this season.

EDITOR’S FOOTNOTE: The Cape Cod Times reports that 7 former Cape Leaguers were taken in the first round of the professional draft this past week. That number is down from 12 in 2006 and 10 in 2005. Bryan Smith of Baseball Prospectus has a great round-up of top talent we will see this summer on the Cape — talent he predicts going high in the 2008 draft.

Comments

8 Responses to “CodBall 2007 Pre-season Preview”

  1. Backstop on June 10th, 2007 3:17 pm

    First of all, Justin Smoak will not be in Cotuit. Second of all, Brett Wallace will not be in Falmouth. Both players are Team USA invitees.

    Cotuit looks to be a lock for the playoffs, even without Smoak. Bourne and Wareham look to be neck and neck for a spot in the west.

    Falmouth and Hyannis don’t look like teams planning on making a playoff run.

  2. Greg on June 11th, 2007 6:26 am

    Both good points. I have spoken with both players for CodBall at different points in the season and both were looking forward to coming to the Cape. Smoak still appears on the Cotuit roster as an invitee to Team USA. Brett Wallace is no longer on the Falmouth roster so I had better give up hope.

  3. Backstop on June 11th, 2007 10:34 am

    Smoak did an interview about two weeks ago in South Carolina where he said (paraphrasing) that he enjoyed the Cape last year, but he’s ready for something new and looking forward to playing for Team USA.

    If Smoak had returned and Chisenhall hadn’t turned into an idiot, Cotuit could have been historically good.

    Bourne’s best player will likely be Wade Kapetyn, a pitcher who is already being talked about as a top ten pick next year.

  4. Greg on June 11th, 2007 2:59 pm

    The Chisenhall story is not something we have reported on here, mainly because he never became an actual Cape player. It is too bad we won’t have the chance to see him play. I still can’t understand what would compell a player like that to get into the trouble he and a teammate got into.

    I am enthusiastic about another Cotuit freshman, Robert Stock of Southern Cal. I saw him this spring. He had an ok year but has a chance to have a really interesting summer on the Cape.

  5. CapeMan on June 12th, 2007 6:32 am

    I saw Wareham play last night against the Columbus All-Americans. A lot of players are still to arrive; especially pitchers, but four pitchers combined for a 2 hit shutout. Luke Murton looks like he has trimmed down, Blake Dean from LSU is going to be a player and I heard a “little bird” standing by the pressbox that Jordy Mercer from Oklahoma State (SS) has been invited to Team USA. The same little bird said the Dominic de la Osa is not going to sign and is coming back to Wareham. Michael Hollander (SS) from LSU was signed as a temp…maybe confirming the Mercer news.

  6. Greg on June 13th, 2007 4:05 pm

    John Manuel of Baseball America just posted the Team USA roster and indeed Smoak and Wallace have accepted. Still doesn’t change my observations on the season.

    http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/college/

  7. Dave B. on June 14th, 2007 2:17 pm

    Well, tomorrow is the big day. We made it through those dark and dreary days of January and February and the opening of the 2007 CCBL season is now upon us.
    Today’s Cape Cod Times has capsule previews of each of the teams. To be honest, the capsules do not provide much worthy information. I’m sure the info was recently compiled, yet it seems that a lot of it is not accurate. Here are a few examples:
    Bourne: In the Braves preview, it mentions Petey Paramore, yet he is on the Team USA roster.
    Brewster: Mentions Preston Guilmet (Arizona) is headed to Team USA, yet he is not on the 20 player USA roster.
    Chatham: Mentions an increased role for Vance Worley, yet the A’s website shows “Contract Released” for him.
    Harwich: Pretty funny editing here. From today’s paper….. “Outlook: Middle of the pack in hitting and pitching, but last in the Eastern standings. So once again, 2006 was another frustrating season for Harwich, a team that hasn’t made it to the finals since 1997 or won it all since 1987. But manager Steve Englert hopes that 10-year trend continues in 2007.”
    It’s good to know that Englert is hoping for a continuation of the frustration and futility of the past ten years !!
    Wareham: Preview mentions Jordy Mercer, but he will not be in Wareham this summer. It has been known for awhile that Mercer would be on Team USA this summer.
    I realize Cape league rosters are in a state of flux at this time of the year, but some of the info provided in the Cape Cod Times capsules is a bit strange.
    It was interesting to learn that Bourne will have lights for the 2008 season. I did not realize that they planned to install lights. They will probably flip the switch before Hyannis does !
    Also, it was interesting to see Paul Galop’s quote “The all-star game takes precedence over the pennant races”, Galop said.’ I can certainly understand why he would be concerned after last year’s all-star game fiasco, but for me personally, I’m a little uncomfortable with the idea of putting that one game ahead of every regular season game. At the very least, I wish that statement wasn’t quite so bold. Making the playoffs is important to each franchise - some more than others. By that I mean the extra money that is taken in by possibly hosting up to four extra games in the playoffs. I understand Galop’s concern, but I’m a bit uncomfortable with that statement.
    Just a few random thoughts….. Are the Bourne Braves on the every-other-year plan ? They were in the championship series in ‘03 and ‘05. Will they return in ‘07 ? My guess is that it’s not likely with the loss of Lynn and Satterwhite to Team USA. Will Orleans have a rooster for a mascot again this summer ? OK, he’s supposed to be a cardinal, but “Mister Cardinal” sure looks more like a rooster. How many games will Scott Pickler stall in this year as dusk settles over Wilson Field ? How many of those stall-tactic games will actually affect the final outcome ? Where is Dustin Ackley ? He was on the Chatham roster but was removed a few weeks ago. My assumption was that he would be on Team USA since he is a shoo-in for Freshman of the Year honors. He is not on the USA roster and has not been put back on the Chatham roster. Falmouth could have an incredible pitching staff. Wareham looks to be loaded. Speaking of Wareham, would everyone agree that John Wylde has a voice made for radio, P.A. work , etc ? Even with the work that has been done at McKeon Park, how many players arrive in Hyannis and think “Nice practice area. Where’s the main field ?” There are worse things to do than to take in a game at Lowell Park. Wonder if Y-D will upgrade to something more than what looks like a batting practice shirt for their away uniforms ? Can’t wait to spend some nights at Veterans Field !
    Oh well. The season is here ! Enjoy those Cape Cod Potato Chips and may you win every 50 / 50 raffle you enter (the money, not the broken bat) !

  8. Jheremy on June 17th, 2007 6:39 pm

    why are josh thrailkill and shawn tolleson no longer on their cape team rosters?

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